Sources and implications of uncertainty for coastal managers in the UK. Water and Environmental Management

Abstract

This study included semi-structured interviews with eight practitioners who have key roles in UK coastal management. Data from the interviews were analysed using ‘grounded theory’, which established that sources of uncertainty in decision making are diverse but can be categorised as being modelling issues, values issues, communication and ‘externalities’. At present, intuitive and implicit methods of taking uncertainty into account in decision making are much more prevalent than explicit methods. By identifying sources and implications of uncertainty, coastal managers will be in a stronger position to promote resilient systems that can cope with changing natural and social conditions.

Jim Hall

Professor of Climate and Environmental Risk

Prof. Jim Hall FREng is Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks in the University of Oxford and Director of Research in the School of Geography and the Environment.