Prioritising resilience policies to reduce welfare losses from natural disasters: a case study for coastal Bangladesh

Abstract

Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind.

Jasper Verschuur

Postdoctoral Research Associate

Jasper Verschuur is a Postdoctoral Research Associate in the Environmental Change institute, University of Oxford

Elco Koks

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Jim Hall

Professor of Climate and Environmental Risk

Prof. Jim Hall FREng is Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks in the University of Oxford and Director of Research in the School of Geography and the Environment.